Is This Really the Best The Cubs Can Do?

EoC archives.

Last night, while working late no less, I learned that Lou has made up his mind that Ryan "The Ryan" Theriot is going to be the Cubs official, no-turning-back leadoff hitter this year. I was too furious to think straight at first, so instead of posting a string of unrelated swears, I let myself sleep on it.

Having given it some thought, I'm not so much furious as just sort of confused, wistful, and sad.

Now I'm not a total stats expert. I don't really understand the high end stuff. But I do know enough to know that the leadoff hitter's job (as the man on the team with the most plate appearances per season) is to get on base for the next couple of hitters to move him over. By hook or by crook, if the leadoff hitter is doing his job right, he should be sitting on first at the end of his at bat, and (depending on his teammates) crossing home before the end of the inning. So, need #1 of a good leadoff hitter is a high .OBP. Theriot's isn't too bad. It's also not outstanding, either. His career average of .356 is decent, but I'd be a lot happier with someone hovering at least around .380.

Moving along (and this is where I really, really get annoyed): a lot of people judge a leadoff hitter by how many bases he steals. Well, no one on the Cubs steals worth a damn. Theriot's 21 last year led the team, with second place being 9 - by Alfonso Soriano, a man whose legs were replaced by al dente linguine some time mid-season. However, just putting a guy in leadoff because he has the most steals is asinine when those 21 steals were achieved in 31 attempts. That's a success rate of less than 70%. That means failure in the school district I came out of. And THAT was in SOUTH FRICKING CAROLINA.

In my opinion, the #2 skill of a good leadoff hitter is to STAY ALIVE ON THE BASEPATHS UNTIL HE CROSSES HOME PLATE. What the hell is the point of putting a guy on base if a full third of his stolen base attempts are poorly conceived and just send him right back to the dugout? Theriot -- and I apologize to Sarah Palin in advance -- is retarded on the basepaths. He doesn't throw the pitcher off his rhythm, because he's not scary to them. All he does is waste my fucking cheers for his at-bat by making it another meaningless single. I highly doubt many of those 21 steals were game-changers, and I'm pretty sure the ten times he was sent packing were mostly meaningless as well - except for, you know, losing a baserunner and one of only 27 chances to bring another hitter to the plate.

My confusion was caused by the fact that taking all of the above into account, Lou locked Theriot down in this position in the order. I'm not saying Lou won't change his mind later in the season, but why not think about this a little more now, before the goddamn games count?

My wistfulness and sadness is caused by the fact that really there aren't a lot of tremendously better options. But there is at least one that might work a little better: platoon leadoff. Because of, you know...lefty-righty splits?

You see, despite his disappointing performance so far and his ridiculous windmill strikeouts, there is one Cub who really gets on base well against right-handers: Kosuke Fukudome. The 'Dome had an .OBP of .387 against northpaws last year. That's like...a good leadoff hitter's .OBP (as opposed to Theriot's almost Soriano-esque .339). Of course, against the sinister, he had a sub-Soriano .299 .OBP, so you definitely don't want Fuku facing anyone who had to use those weird padded scissors in elementary school. But...and here's the interesting thing...Ryan Theriot gets on at a .361 clip against lefties. Much better. Not amazing, but not embarassing.

So my one, very humbly delivered suggestionto the Cubs this year: why not try the following in leadoff this year:

1. Put Fukudome at the top of the order against right-handers, and slide Theriot down a bit.
2. Put "Ther Iot" in leadoff against left-handers, and slide Kosuke WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY down the lineup.
3. DO NOT EVER GIVE THERIOT THE GREEN LIGHT TO STEAL. EVER. If you have to, install a shock collar that delivers a few hundred volts every time he starts "giving second the glad eye" at a bad time.

See? Nothing too revolutionary. Just a slight tweak. Let's see how that plays out before just handing out at bats to a decent, but not awesome hitter, ok?